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Sen. John Boozman adds a leveraged 2X S&P 500 bet near the market bottom

Sen. John Boozman, Republican of Arkansas and a member of the Senate Subcommittee on Commodities, Risk Management, and Trade, purchased the Tradr 2X Long SPY Monthly ETF — a fund that delivers twice the monthly return of the S&P 500 — on March 20, disclosed April 14. The trade was valued between $1,001 and $15,000. A 2X leveraged ETF amplifies gains and losses, so Boozman was making an aggressive directional call on U.S. equities at the same moment markets were pricing peak uncertainty around Iran. The S&P has risen roughly 7% since that purchase.

Eric Sprott puts $7.73M into Hycroft Mining amid war-driven gold surge

Eric Sprott, a prominent Canadian mining investor and 10% owner of Hycroft Mining Holding Corp — a Nevada gold and silver producer — purchased 200,000 shares between April 9–10, at prices ranging from $38.28 to $39.06, totaling roughly $7.73 million. Hycroft's stock has returned over 1,200% in the past year as gold has become a primary beneficiary of Middle East instability. Leading financial institutions including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have projected gold could trade in a $4,000–$6,300 range through 2026 amid central bank buying and safe-haven demand. Sprott is adding to an existing large position, not opening a new one.

Worksport CEO adds $75K in open-market shares

Steven Rossi, CEO and President of Worksport Ltd., purchased 88,214 shares at $0.85 per share on April 13, totaling approximately $75,000. Worksport is a small-cap company that makes pickup truck bed covers with integrated solar panels and portable power systems — a niche energy storage play. CEO purchases on the open market, where an executive uses personal money to buy shares at current prices, are generally considered a stronger conviction signal than option exercises. Rossi now controls a significant personal stake relative to the company's size.

Lawmakers accumulate RTX ahead of long-term Army drone deal

Multiple members of Congress have reported purchases in RTX Corp. — the defense contractor that makes Raytheon missiles, Pratt & Whitney jet engines, and the Coyote drone interceptor — in recent months. The backdrop: the U.S. Army announced April 13 it will pursue a multi-year contract with RTX for Coyote interceptors, used to shoot down Iranian-made Shahed drones. Coyote interceptors cost roughly $120,000 per shot versus $4 million for a Patriot missile, making them the Pentagon's preferred cost-efficient counter-drone solution. The planned Army framework deal, expected to seek FY2027 funding, would lock in production for years.

Forager Fund builds $4.7M position in Repay Holdings near 52-week lows

Forager Fund L.P. purchased approximately 950,000 shares of Repay Holdings Corp across five separate trading days between April 1–9, totaling roughly $4.7 million, at prices between $2.42 and $2.68 per share. Repay Holdings is a payments technology company that processes transactions for consumer lending, healthcare, and government sectors. The stock had fallen approximately 38% over the prior six months, trading near its 52-week low. Forager now controls over 10 million shares. This kind of sustained accumulation near a multi-month low by a single fund is the pattern I track most closely.

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AE Industrial Partners exits $9.2M of Redwire Corp at a loss

AE Industrial Partners Fund, a private equity firm focused on aerospace and defense, sold 950,144 shares of Redwire Corp over April 8–9 at prices between $9.10 and $10.54, totaling approximately $9.23 million. Redwire is a space infrastructure company — it builds hardware for satellites, space stations, and planetary missions. The shares were sold below the fund's earlier cost basis, representing a meaningful markdown on this position. When a sponsor-level holder of this size exits in two back-to-back sessions at declining prices, it tells you they're prioritizing liquidity over recovery.

Sea Ltd COO reduces 20,000 shares via pre-arranged plan

Ye Gang, Chief Operating Officer of Sea Ltd., sold 20,000 Class A shares through a BVI entity at weighted average prices in the mid-$80s in early April, disclosed April 14. Sea Ltd. is a Singapore-based internet and e-commerce company that operates the Shopee shopping platform and Garena gaming platform across Southeast Asia. The sales were executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan — a pre-scheduled trading program set up in advance so that insiders can sell without being accused of trading on non-public information. These routine plan sales carry less signal than unscheduled open-market transactions.

Sen. Boozman exits Europe ETF and Johnson & Johnson on same day he bought the market

On March 19, one day before his leveraged S&P 500 purchase, Sen. John Boozman sold between $15,001 and $50,000 in JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF — a fund tracking large European stocks — and between $1,001 and $15,000 in Johnson & Johnson, the pharmaceutical and medical device giant. Johnson & Johnson raised its 2026 sales guidance to a range of $100.3–$101.3 billion after Q1 earnings this week, but Boozman's exit predated that print. The pair of sales, offset by the leveraged U.S. market buy the next day, reads as a rotation: out of Europe and defensives, into a concentrated U.S. equity bet.

McCormick executives unload $9.5M in shares over six months

Lawrence Kurzius, former CEO of McCormick & Company, sold approximately 139,014 shares for a combined $9.47 million across seven transactions over the past six months, with no corresponding purchases. McCormick is one of the world's largest spice and flavoring companies — its brands include McCormick, French's, and Frank's RedHot. Sustained executive selling with no offsetting buys is worth noting, particularly in a consumer staples company where rising input costs from energy-driven inflation have compressed margins across the sector.

Fastenal executives trim $2.5M before Q1 earnings

Two Fastenal Company executives — Reyne Wisecup and Scott Satterlee — sold a combined 52,884 shares for approximately $2.45 million over the past six months. Fastenal is an industrial supply distributor that sells nuts, bolts, tools, and safety equipment to factories and construction sites across North America. Insider selling before an earnings report can mean many things — pre-scheduled plans, tax planning, diversification — but two separate executives reducing in the same window before a print is a data point worth tracking. Fastenal reported Q1 results Monday, April 13.

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Comm. Svcs

+2.68%

Cons. Cyclical

+2.32%

Technology

+1.17%

Healthcare

+0.85%

Real Estate

+0.88%

Financials

+0.62%

Utilities

+0.29%

Industrials

+0.44%

Materials

−0.07%

Cons. Def.

−0.06%

Energy

−2.45%

Nate's Take

There's a split screen running right now and I find it genuinely hard to look away. On one side: JPMorgan just reported its best quarterly profit in years, Citigroup posted decade-high revenue, and the S&P 500 is within 1% of an all-time record. On the other side: the U.S. is actively blockading Iranian ports, Brent crude is at $94 a barrel, 10-year Treasury yields sit at 4.31%, and Pakistan is mediating talks between Washington and Tehran. The money I track is not ignoring that second screen — it's just decided to price through it. Sen. Boozman's leveraged S&P bet in mid-March, Eric Sprott's $7.73 million gold purchase near the bottom, the sustained Forager Fund accumulation in Repay Holdings, and the congressional positioning in RTX all point the same direction: institutional and semi-institutional money concluded the floor was in, weeks before the index confirmed it. The sellers — Redwire's sponsor fund, McCormick executives, the Fastenal pre-earnings trim — are on the other side of that trade, choosing liquidity or locking in gains before the picture clarifies. What I keep coming back to is the VIX. It opened today at 18.36. Six weeks ago it was above 35. That's not a market hedging against a war — that's a market that has largely made its peace with one. The question isn't whether the rally is real. It's whether the resolution people are betting on is real too.

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Oil volatility falls even as the Blockade enters day two

WTI crude's one-month implied volatility — a measure of how much traders expect oil prices to move — surged to 68% at the peak of Iran war fears before falling back to 51%. The physical-futures spread, where physical barrels trade far above the paper price, has narrowed as markets begin anticipating eventual Hormuz reopening. IEA data shows global crude throughput has fallen by roughly 6 million barrels per day due to the conflict. Goldman Sachs has warned Brent could average above $100 per barrel through 2026 if the strait stays restricted — but oil options traders are pricing de-escalation, not escalation.

Treasury options show a large buyer betting on 4.1% yields by May

In the Treasury options market — where traders buy contracts that profit if U.S. government bond yields move in a specific direction — a large buyer this week purchased May contracts structured to profit if 10-year yields fall to 4.1%, a level not seen since March 10. The 10-year currently sits at 4.31%. This is a significant directional bet: it implies someone with real size believes either Iran talks will succeed and oil prices will fall, pulling inflation expectations down with them, or that economic data will weaken enough to force the Federal Reserve's hand on rate cuts this year.

War Powers clock creates a Political deadline markets haven't fully priced

The War Powers Resolution is a U.S. law that limits a president's ability to conduct military operations without congressional approval — typically giving a 60-day window before requiring a vote. Strategists at Global X ETFs and others note that the Trump administration is approaching that deadline in the Iran conflict, which began in late February. House Speaker Mike Johnson has blocked a War Powers vote, but bipartisan pressure is building. If Congress forces a vote, the political uncertainty alone could trigger volatility, regardless of how markets have priced the military situation. This is the risk that's hardest to hedge.

Dollar and VIX move together again — a signal that Haven flows have returned to U.S. assets

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that the dollar's traditional relationship with the VIX — where a rising dollar accompanies rising fear — has been restored by the Iran war, reversing the pattern from last year's tariff uncertainty when investors fled U.S. assets. The dollar index has gained roughly 1.4% since the war began. When the dollar rises alongside equities, it means international capital is flowing into U.S. markets for safety reasons, not just return reasons. That's a support mechanism for U.S. stocks — but it also means a surprise de-escalation could reverse that flow quickly.

Paris summit Friday puts Hormuz back on the geopolitical calendar

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron will co-host a summit in Paris this Friday focused on efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. The meeting adds a European diplomatic track alongside the Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran talks. Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and The PNC Financial Services Group all report earnings Wednesday. Any shift in tone from Friday's summit could move energy, currency, and equity markets simultaneously before those prints are fully digested.